Consistently formatted crowding predictions now available

Esoterix has launched a new service, SCOUT, predicting train loadings. Available on the Rail Data Marketplace, this service uses historic loading data to estimate how busy each service is likely to be every time it runs over the next 25 days.

Crowding, or more specifically over-crowding, is one of passengers’ most common complaints in Rail Surveys. The emotional impact through loud and clear in our research project, Elicit, with Bristol University. Passengers hate travelling in overcrowded trains.

But… but, the picture is more complicated than that. A passenger’s willingness to accept overcrowding is dependent on a myriad of factors from purpose to duration to demographics. If you’ve got to be there, you might hate it but you’ll do it. If you have flexibility, then the information that enables you to choose becomes everything – particularly for the 1 in 4 people with mobility issues who often find overcrowded situations stressful and overwhelming. There’s latent demand in the people who don’t travel because they’re worried about an overcrowded experience.

And that’s where SCOUT comes in. It aims to enable operators and retailers to give passengers the confidence to select a service which suits them – both in time and comfort.

SCOUT is consistently formatted making it easy to consume. And it uses intelligent techniques to ensure up to 97% of service legs have a prediction with 85% of predictions being within 10% of the total train’s capacity.

SCOUT is currently available for Southeastern, Northern, Greater Anglia and TransPennine Express. Check out the listing on the Rail Data Marketplace here

Look out for announcements about SCOUT Plus, our responsive predictions in Spring 2026.